Foreign Policy

So I've decided to wait a little while before posting anything more about health care. I did find an article in the New York Times that explains a good overview of the current proposal and which ideologies the parts of the proposal support. The link is:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/20/business/economy/20leonhardt.html?ref=politics

Anyway, I'd like to move on to a new topic that will probably cause some trouble and discussion with in my circle of friends (I like doing that). The topic that I would like to discuss is the Obama administration's foreign policy. In order to discuss this I need to lay some background.

In the 20th Century the United States emerged as the dominant economic power in the world. The first half of the 20th Century saw wide spread support for isolationism in the US. This desire to remain un-entangled in world affairs caused the US to delay entry into the World Wars. Once the Second World War ended the US chose to stay involved in world affairs.

At that point in time the US GDP was about 50% of world GDP. In other words the US was producing half of the stuff in the world. It was at this point that the US began to assume its role as a great power. The next half of the 20th Century was basically a power struggle between Soviet Communism and American Capitalism. One important thing to note is that through the Cold War the US was always ahead of the USSR economically.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union the US has taken the role of the global leader. US GDP is now only 21% of world GDP, but has only 5% of the world’s population (data from CIA World Factbook 2008). This drop in US GDP as a percentage of World GDP is due to an increase in other nations industry (not a decrease in American industry), but still shows that that US maintains a significant economic advantage over the rest of the world. If you look at NATO, its member states' 900 million people account for only 13 percent of the world's population but 45 percent of global GDP. In other words that West still dominates the world economically, lead by the United States. I would also like to point out that NATO still controls the same percentage of world GDP that the United States did at the end of World War II.

These economic factors give the United States and NATO some advantages and disadvantages in the world. By having such a large lead on the rest of the world NATO can bring significant economic and military power to bear against any foreign powers. It can also bring significant aid to the developing world in order to open new markets for its good and collect natural resources found in other nations. This power means that NATO is automatically entangled in world affairs. With globalization continuing to interconnect the world in a web of trade and international production the powerful economies of the world become more and more connected and dependent on one another. An example of this is that the United States consumes 23% of the oil produced in the world, while only producing 10% of the world’s total oil (CIA World Factbook). 10% might seem insignificant but the US is the 3rd largest oil producer in the world behind Saudi Arabia and Russia. This shows that although the US produces a large amount of oil we consume a significant amount more. The fact that we require more oil than we can produce shows that we are connected to global markets in order to maintain our current standard of living. This is a simplified explanation of the interconnections that exist between the US and the world, but I don’t want this post to drag on for too long.

The previous paragraph demonstrates that the US is dependent on the rest of the world to maintain our current standard of living. To keep things the way they are the US has to maintain stability in the world. If other nations around the world were to become hostile towards the US then it would be impossible to maintain the current economic arrangements. Now I’m not trying to say that the US is preventing the world from changing, what I’m trying to say is that the US is trying to keep the world in a state of peaceful transition. The world will keep changing, and what the US is trying to do is to keep that transition from becoming an explosion. This point could be argued by many who feel that the US is simply continuing to repress the rest of the world and exploit 3rd world nations to maintain its high status, but that is a discussion for another time. I am simply trying to make the point that it is in the interest of the United States to make sure the world stays relatively peaceful and predictable.

As I have shown above the US and the West hold a significant amount of the world’s production. In other words we are the “haves”. We have a lot of stuff. But where there are “haves” there are also “have nots”. The “have nots” are those in the world who do not share a significant percentage of the worlds wealth. And when 13% of the population holds 43% of the wealth then there are bound to be people who feel they have been treated unfairly or cheated and repressed. These people often become angry and when they feel they have little left to live for they rise up and fight off those they see as their oppressors. Some of these “have nots” are the terrorists who we are currently fighting in the Middle East, as well as terrorists around the world.

Now although the US holds a significant advantage over them economically we are badly out matched when it comes to population. Like I stated earlier, the US has only 5% of the world’s population. So suppose we subtract the population of our NATO allies from the “have nots”, then we still are facing a 5/87 ratio of friendlies to potential hostiles. Does this ratio bother you? If it doesn’t, then it should (here is where I get controversial).

According to the George W. Bush doctrine a country is either “with us or against us.” This policy pitted many of our NATO allies against us when we invaded Iraq without providing enough proof that the action was necessary. If we were to pit our allies against us the ratio would actually become about 5/95. Now that is downright scary! We as Americans like to think that we are invincible. We remember our victories over the past century and dilute ourselves with visions of our own greatness. Well I would like to remind everyone that “Pride cometh before the fall.” There is no way in my mind regardless of technological advantages that 5% of the world’s population could confront the other 95% of its population. Now I’m not saying that President Bush caused our allies to turn against us, or to want to go to war with us, but he defiantly hurt our relationships, and made it difficult to get NATO involved in our Middle Eastern wars. I personally am of the opinion that it will be impossible for the United States to maintain its power without the help of our allies in NATO.

At this point many of you are probably saying, “Why should we listen to a bunch of Europeans sitting across an ocean, when they don’t understand our needs?” This argument makes sense unless you consider the fact that without their help we face difficulties that we may not be able to overcome by ourselves.

I’ve heard many people say that President Obama hasn’t done anything since he came into office. Well I would like to point out that there is a reason he won the Nobel Peace Prize. He hasn’t just been sitting on his can. Some argue that he shouldn’t have won the prizes because we are still involved in 2 wars and with the same breath they condemn him for not acting and defending America. It’s actually been quoted to me from a few of my professors that President Obama has issued more Predator air strikes then President Bush (I don’t have a source on this other than my professor). So if you’re concerned that he isn’t willing to pull the trigger put your fears to rest, because in spite of what Fox News wants you to believe he is willing to act. So if he is willing to fight then how could he have won a Peace Prize? Well that is simple. America’s allies are once again America’s friends. President Obama and his administration have been able to win back our friends in Europe. They have given diplomatic options to the Iranians, and they have created a plan for Afghanistan that is more feasible then the plan to create a stable democracy.

Anyway my point with this post isn’t to convince anyone that they have to like President Obama. It is simply to point out that he is willing to act and he has won back our friends. America does not stand alone any more. Had John McCain won the election it is highly likely that the Bush policies would have continued and that our allies overseas would still be standoffish towards us and our foreign policy. But now we can move forward with confidence and with friends to face the challenges of the 21st century. These challenges will be difficult and will require much from us, but it will be much better to walk the path with friends by our side, and you can thank the Obama administration for that.